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<channel>
	<title>Bert's Horseracing Blog</title>
	<link>http://www.bertsblog.co.uk</link>
	<description>Betfair's Andrew Black on Horse Racing, Betting, Betfair and Random Musings</description>
	<pubDate>Thu, 24 Jul 2008 06:51:52 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>Lilac&#8217;s back</title>
		<link>http://www.bertsblog.co.uk/horses/lilacs-back.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.bertsblog.co.uk/horses/lilacs-back.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Jul 2008 06:50:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Mick</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Berts Horses]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bertsblog.co.uk/horses/lilacs-back.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Lilac Moon runs in the 8:30 at Doncaster tonight. She is switching from polytrack to turf and also stepping up in trip, so we can&#8217;t be as confident as we were at Lingfield last time. However, if she does handle the change of surface and trip it will open up a lot more options for [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Lilac Moon</strong> runs in the 8:30 at Doncaster tonight. She is switching from polytrack to turf and also stepping up in trip, so we can&#8217;t be as confident as we were at Lingfield last time. However, if she does handle the change of surface and trip it will open up a lot more options for her in the future. Her last run was a career best and the runner-up has won a better race since but Lilac has been raised 6lbs by the handicapper as a result of her efforts. Richard Kingscote is making the long journey from Bath, after the 4:05 there, in order to ride. He knows her well and rode a very good race from the front last time. I will be heading to the track - it&#8217;s one of the 10 UK courses that I&#8217;ve yet to visit.</p>
<p>Bert has three entered for the first day of Glorious Goodwood next week - <strong>Bouguereau, Winker Watson and King&#8217;s Head</strong>. The first two are in valuable Betfair sponsored events so we&#8217;re hoping the money won&#8217;t be going far if they stand their ground.</p>
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		<title>No holiday for the horses</title>
		<link>http://www.bertsblog.co.uk/horses/no-holiday-for-the-horses.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.bertsblog.co.uk/horses/no-holiday-for-the-horses.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 21 Jul 2008 10:16:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Mick</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Berts Horses]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bertsblog.co.uk/horses/no-holiday-for-the-horses.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Bert is sunning himself in Sardinia for the next couple of weeks but he is likely to have several runners while away and he asked me to keep blog readers informed.
First up is Pansy Potter who makes her debut in Windsor’s 7:20 this evening and will be looking to provide The Comic Strip Heroes (Bert, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bert is sunning himself in Sardinia for the next couple of weeks but he is likely to have several runners while away and he asked me to keep blog readers informed.</p>
<p>First up is <strong>Pansy Potter </strong>who makes her debut in Windsor’s 7:20 this evening and will be looking to provide The Comic Strip Heroes (Bert, Ed Wray and Ed’s brother Jeremy) with their first winner of the season. Their two year olds have disappointed so far and hopes of uncovering another as good as Winker Watson look to rest with those, like PP, who have yet to appear. She is a third foal, all by Auction House, and her two full siblings both won at two, though not first time out. Her Group 2 entry at York next month  is an indication of the initial impression she made and a she could run well from a decent draw this evening. However, as she’s one of a dozen seeing the racecourse for the first time, it’s difficult to assess her chance and I doubt Bert will be lumping on from the beach.</p>
<p><strong>Parisian Gift </strong>runs at Yarmouth to-morrow (4:55). Bert only owns a small share of this one (half a leg). I also own a bit of him as do a couple of people from Betfair and a few friends. Since this particular venture was my idea I’m particularly keen for the horse to do well. All started well with a win at Lingfield last December – just a week after we bought him. He was then given a rest with dreams of a 2008 campaign that would see sufficient improvement to warrant a crack at Royal Ascot’s Britannia Handicap. His first run this season at Doncaster was a big disappointment and he was subsequently unwell. Now, nearly ten weeks on, he seems fine and we are hoping that he can progress. The bullishness the partnership felt over the winter has been tempered by things not running smoothly this year but Tom Dascombe reports that he has been working well and fingers are firmly crossed for a bold show.</p>
<p>More news as the decs unfold.</p>
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		<title>Storm &#8216;n Norman</title>
		<link>http://www.bertsblog.co.uk/horse-racing/storm-n-norman.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.bertsblog.co.uk/horse-racing/storm-n-norman.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 19 Jul 2008 11:39:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Bert</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Horse Racing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bertsblog.co.uk/horse-racing/storm-n-norman.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I did one thing yesterday that was vaguely clever.  I thought Greg Norman was a touch long in the win market - a price of 27 for a guy in outright second felt big even accounting for age and tendency to bottle the big ones.  I had £3.5k on at 27 and 28 and put [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I did one thing yesterday that was vaguely clever.  I thought Greg Norman was a touch long in the win market - a price of 27 for a guy in outright second felt big even accounting for age and tendency to bottle the big ones.  I had £3.5k on at 27 and 28 and put it back in at 24 and 25, hoping to get filled overnight when Australia came online.</p>
<p>I checked the market this morning, and although the price has drifted to 28/29, my lay bets have been filled.  I have a nice bet to nothing.  I had a bit more on Graeme Storm, but for some reason his price has suddenly contracted.  Let&#8217;s hope he has a good day.  I&#8217;ve laid a few of the better players who are off the pace to pay for my Storm bet.</p>
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		<title>Off on my hols</title>
		<link>http://www.bertsblog.co.uk/horses/off-on-my-hols.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.bertsblog.co.uk/horses/off-on-my-hols.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 19 Jul 2008 10:58:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Bert</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Berts Horses]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Kings Head]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Winker Watson]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bertsblog.co.uk/horses/off-on-my-hols.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Up and down betting at the moment.  Good bets on Addikt and Whispering Angel came in but I took a heavy loss on Royal Destination last night.  I missed an opportunity when Papradon, who had nearly reeled in Lilac Moon last time, won the first at Newmarket at a big price.  It&#8217;s a nice boost [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Up and down betting at the moment.  Good bets on Addikt and Whispering Angel came in but I took a heavy loss on Royal Destination last night.  I missed an opportunity when Papradon, who had nearly reeled in <strong>Lilac Moon</strong> last time, won the first at Newmarket at a big price.  It&#8217;s a nice boost for her form though.</p>
<p>Just one runner today - <strong>Scrapper Smith</strong> goes in a nursery at Lingfield tonight.  He&#8217;s been a little disappointing so far, but I&#8217;m reasonably positive about his chances tonight.  I think he was run off his feet last time on 5 furlongs on very firm ground - I think 6 furlongs is probably his trip and G/F looks fine.  He has the best draw today and we&#8217;ll probably try to make all - the rail may assist.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve had a look at the rest of the day.  Firebet caught my eye as an interesting outsider in the first at Newbury.  In the 4:30 I&#8217;m tempted to give one last chance to Passage of Time.  At Newmarket Truly Divine is an interesting runner in the 2:00 and supposedly goes well at home.  I also like Arthur&#8217;s Girl in the 2:35.  Trinity College goes for Mike de Kock at Haydock.  His string showed their wellbeing last week and I may have a go there.</p>
<p>In the last at Newmarket I&#8217;m sticking with Kasban, a horse I tried to buy last year.  He&#8217;s trying 2 miles for the first time, but he&#8217;s clearly a marathon type and he has the right jockey on board today.  Last time out he just beat Daylami Dreams, who goes again in the 4:45 at Newmarket - he might benefit from a slightly more aggressive ride, and the two make an interesting double.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m off for two week on Sunday - Mick will update the blog while I&#8217;m away.  Runners in the foreseeable include <strong>Pansy Potter</strong>, <strong>Scrapper Smith</strong> (Again), <strong>King&#8217;s Head</strong>, <strong>Parisian Gift</strong> and <strong>Lilac Moon</strong>.  Pansy we think we like but she may need the run first time.  Scrapper would be of interest if he ran a big race tonight.  King&#8217;s Head likes it firm and is well.  Parisian Gift is certainly better than his last run.  Lilac may still be well in despite going up 6lb and is honest and reliable.</p>
<p><strong>Winker</strong> is in the Sussex on July 30, and is an intended runner at this stage. </p>
<p>I return on August 3, when <strong>Marine Boy</strong> will come out in a maiden at Newbury.  We like him a lot.</p>
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		<title>Celeb action</title>
		<link>http://www.bertsblog.co.uk/horses/celeb-action.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.bertsblog.co.uk/horses/celeb-action.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Jul 2008 01:08:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Bert</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Berts Horses]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Effingham]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Shepherds Warning]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bertsblog.co.uk/horses/celeb-action.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Winker finally returned to action, but it was a disappointment.  He was seventh out of 16 in the Prix Jean Prat - a strong race, not disgraced but frankly I was hoping for a lot better.
There were excuses.  He lost a shoe coming out of the stalls - he subsequently lost 3 or 4 lengths [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Winker finally returned to action, but it was a disappointment.  He was seventh out of 16 in the Prix Jean Prat - a strong race, not disgraced but frankly I was hoping for a lot better.</p>
<p>There were excuses.  He lost a shoe coming out of the stalls - he subsequently lost 3 or 4 lengths going round the bend.  Pete&#8217;s first thought was that he just didn&#8217;t handle the bend, but Jamie Spencer subsequently suggested that the reason he didn&#8217;t cope with the bend was the lost shoe.  If he had held his position he could have finished in the ruck for the minor places.</p>
<p>All a bit theoretical and there are no prizes for excuses.  We&#8217;ve lost our unbeaten record which is a shame - it&#8217;s all the more important to come back and win now.  It was asking a lot to come out and win a group 1 after such a long lay off.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve had a fairly busy week so far.  On Monday I played in a pro-celeb golf tournament - I played with Gabby and Kenny Logan and Chris Hollins.  Other celebs included Dougray Scott, Ronan Keating, Jodie Kidd, Willie Thorne, Di Stewart, Rob Brydon, James Nesbitt, Gianluca Vialli and Johnny Vaughan. </p>
<p>I actually played quite well, and after 18 holes we posted comfortably the best score of the 18 teams.  I assumed we&#8217;d win, but for some reason the winner was determined by a three hole play-off for the top five teams with only the best score counting.  It was a rather odd way to do it - we got three pars but came fifth.</p>
<p>On Tuesday I had a board meeting at Stats on Sport.  After this I headed off to Euston to catch the train to Crewe with Mick.  We were picked up at the station by Nicky Vaughan, who drove us back to Manor House Stables.</p>
<p>Nicky is the installed trainer and runs the show, but the stables are owned by Michael Owen.  Michael wasn&#8217;t able to come down as he is in pre-season training.  Nicky gave us the full tour. </p>
<p>They are building two american style barns, each for 23 horses, to a very high spec - they already have one large barn, and this will take them to capacity for 80 horses.  They weren&#8217;t quite finished but they were magnificent, built in traditional red brick.  They were starting work on a third building, which included a substantial second floor lounge for owners.</p>
<p>We had a look at the seven furlong all-weather gallop and a large field where they are laying out a series of grass gallops.  We went back to the house for dinner - we were greeted by Forrest the sheep that the Vaughans have adopted as their pet (with their two dogs). </p>
<p>Forrest was quite a character - not as bright as some pets but with plenty of attitude.  Lynn, Nicky&#8217;s wife, explained that all of her attempts to house train him have backfired, and he does the exact reverse of what he is supposed to do.  When they open the back door Forrest bolts through and immediately shits on the floor.  Truly a sight to behold.</p>
<p>In the morning we watched the work.  <strong>Lilac Moon</strong> had her first full gallop since her win, working with Rio L&#8217;Oren.  She did it nicely, moving fluently and showing a good action.  She&#8217;ll be out again soon, possibly over a mile and a half and on the turf.  <strong>Shepherd&#8217;s Warning</strong> is recovering from a minor muscle problem and is just trotting at the moment - she&#8217;s not the biggest or the bulkiest, but she looked a very different horse to the weakling I claimed last year.  <strong>Effingham</strong> is recovering from a variety of issues, including a gelding operation which he is over now.  He has a residual problem with one of his hind legs and he doesn&#8217;t trot well - we&#8217;re hoping he&#8217;ll gallop ok with it though.  He&#8217;s not over big but he has a lot of muscle - he could make a speedster if he can get it together.</p>
<p>We left around lunchtime and headed back to London.  It&#8217;s an impressive set up and it&#8217;s nearly finished - I&#8217;ve no doubt they will deliver results when it&#8217;s fully functional.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve had a bet in the Open on Graeme Storm.  I think he has enough talent and I&#8217;m hoping the timing is right for him to come into the tournament with the right attitude.</p>
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		<title>Strike two</title>
		<link>http://www.bertsblog.co.uk/horses/strike-two.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.bertsblog.co.uk/horses/strike-two.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 12 Jul 2008 10:17:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Bert</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Berts Horses]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Winker Watson]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bertsblog.co.uk/horses/strike-two.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[An unbelievable day yesterday when Tom won the second 2yo group 2 with another incredibly cheap buy.  Firth of Fifth cost 5,000 Guineas - Classic Blade 19,000 Euros.  It is an incredible training feat, and great credit also to Richard Kingscote who rode so intelligently. 
I didn&#8217;t go yesterday - it seemed like a good time [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>An unbelievable day yesterday when Tom won the second 2yo group 2 with another incredibly cheap buy.  Firth of Fifth cost 5,000 Guineas - Classic Blade 19,000 Euros.  It is an incredible training feat, and great credit also to Richard Kingscote who rode so intelligently. </p>
<p>I didn&#8217;t go yesterday - it seemed like a good time to take a day out.  I&#8217;m staying a home today and I won&#8217;t go to France to watch <strong>Winker</strong> either as I have a family christening.  I take some solace in the fact that my horses invariably do better when I don&#8217;t go to watch them. </p>
<p>I don&#8217;t have time to watch it today but I may place a few early bets.  York is riding heavy, which is specialist ground.  Three proven types that I&#8217;ll follow are Zomerlust (2:40), Heaven Knows (3:15) and Wing Collar (3:50).  In the last at Chester I&#8217;ll back Derrick&#8217;s Dotty to follow up.</p>
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		<title>Disappointment</title>
		<link>http://www.bertsblog.co.uk/horses/disappointment-2.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.bertsblog.co.uk/horses/disappointment-2.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Jul 2008 23:02:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Bert</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Berts Horses]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Bouguereau]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Winker Watson]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bertsblog.co.uk/horses/disappointment-2.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A big day and I made arrangements to go to Newmarket - I decided to book a driver for the day.  I had a few errands to run in the morning and I headed off a bit late.  I slept most of the way there - when I have a driver I usually stay up late the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A big day and I made arrangements to go to Newmarket - I decided to book a driver for the day.  I had a few errands to run in the morning and I headed off a bit late.  I slept most of the way there - when I have a driver I usually stay up late the night before knowing I&#8217;ll make it up.</p>
<p>The first item on the menu was <strong>Winker</strong>, who was having a racecourse gallop.  I didn&#8217;t make it in time to see him.  He was working with Striving Storm - apparently he impressed.  Jamie Spencer rode, and also takes the ride in Chantilly as a supersub.  He said some very positive things, although I tend to ignore such comments as jockeys are invariably positive to owners.</p>
<p>One possible exception here is Alan Munro, who is always cheerful but says it as he sees it.  He was riding <strong>Bouguereau</strong> in the first, and I had a bet.  He sat fairly comfortably in third or fourth until the three furlong pole and tried to boot him home from there, but he got run out of it late on.</p>
<p>It was disappointing.  I&#8217;d love to do a groundhog day and have another go at the race, taking up the pace early and trying to run them ragged - I think those may prove to be the best tactics with him.</p>
<p>In the July Stakes both Pete and Tom Dascombe had fancied runners, and I was hoping they would come out well as I have 2yos working against both horses.  As it happened they fought out the finish in a tight race, with Classic Blade of Tom&#8217;s just holding sway.  A fantastic result for Tom, and his first group victory.</p>
<p>I was very positive.  We went for some lunch at the Jockey Club rooms.  I didn&#8217;t bet in the third race and lost a little on Papal Bull in the fourth.  <strong>Maxwell Hawke</strong> was running in the fifth - he&#8217;d been working nicely and had worked with Sayif.  He&#8217;d been plenty close enough to Sayif on the gallops and Sayif had nearly won a Group 2.  I had a large bet.</p>
<p>It didn&#8217;t happen for him - he finished last of the five having never had a look in.  He&#8217;d been colty in the parade ring and he hadn&#8217;t travelled down well.  Coming back his action was terrible at first - he relaxed after a few furlong and started galloping properly, but it was a short lived effort.  He was exhausted afterwards and blew for a long time.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not really sure what to make of that.  Obviously it&#8217;s disappointing.</p>
<p>I stuck around for a while and headed off after the last.  Tom had a 2yo runner at Nottingham - I decided his 2yos were going so well that I&#8217;d have a real go at it and try to recoup my losses for the day.  It turned out to be a 101 gubbing, nobbled close home by a rank outsider who had looked completely out of it earlier on. </p>
<p>At this point I was staring at my worst day&#8217;s betting ever - three large bets had gone down and half my profits from a good two month run were gone.  Jeremy had tipped me a horse in the 8:30 at Nottingham.  I had a go on that and it came in - I found another late winner and then called it quits.  I managed to get back just over half of the days losses - still a terrible day&#8217;s betting but a recovery from the lows.</p>
<p>I walked the dog.  All in all a bit of a depressing day, and I pondered on a few things.  I&#8217;ve been betting all of my adult life, but I&#8217;m at a point now where the money doesn&#8217;t make any difference one way or another, and I keep pretty busy these days.  Maybe it&#8217;s time to give up completely for a while just to see what happens - I might become more productive, or maybe I&#8217;ll go completely crazy.  I may think on it a little longer.</p>
<p>For now all my thoughts are with Winker - a year and a day after his last run he will finally line up in a Group 1.  Maybe my season is about to begin.</p>
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		<title>Cats and dogs</title>
		<link>http://www.bertsblog.co.uk/horses/cats-and-dogs.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.bertsblog.co.uk/horses/cats-and-dogs.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Jul 2008 11:39:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Bert</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Berts Horses]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Bouguereau]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Winker Watson]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bertsblog.co.uk/horses/cats-and-dogs.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[More hideous weather today - I&#8217;m told that we&#8217;re getting a month&#8217;s worth of rain today here in leafy Surrey.  I can believe it - it&#8217;s cats and dogs out there.
It wasn&#8217;t raining at Newmarket overnight and early morning, but the rain started an hour ago and it&#8217;s chucking it down now (11:40).  Rain is [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>More hideous weather today - I&#8217;m told that we&#8217;re getting a month&#8217;s worth of rain today here in leafy Surrey.  I can believe it - it&#8217;s cats and dogs out there.</p>
<p>It wasn&#8217;t raining at Newmarket overnight and early morning, but the rain started an hour ago and it&#8217;s chucking it down now (11:40).  Rain is also forecast at Chantilly where <strong>Winker</strong> will hopefully be running on Sunday.</p>
<p>The opportunities tomorrow look pretty good.  <strong>Bouguereau</strong> looks a pretty solid prospect on his form to date, and the conditions of the race look highly suitable - I&#8217;d perhaps be concerned if there was too much rain but otherwise it all looks good.  He works very nicely at home and is a straightforward ride - he&#8217;ll be ridden a lot more prominently than he was in the Derby.  I&#8217;ll be disappointed if he doesn&#8217;t win.</p>
<p><strong>Maxwell Hawke</strong> goes well at home and Pete generally gets his horses fit first time up.  He was a fairly expensive purchase and we think he has a big future, although there would be some concerns about the ground.  There are only 5 runners in his race.  <strong>Parisian Gift</strong> may run at Warwick, but he won&#8217;t want it soft and may be switched to Kempton next week.</p>
<p>Sunday is the big day for <strong>Winker</strong> as he looks for Group 1 glory in Chantilly.  Aqlaam is out of the race.  Raven&#8217;s Pass is in, but he&#8217;s unlikely to get his favoured ground.  Rio de la Plata is a G1 winner and won&#8217;t be inconvenienced by a bit of cut - he looks to be a shade off top class though. </p>
<p>I&#8217;d be a little concerned for Winker if it rained too much.  We think he goes fine on softer ground but he&#8217;d probably prefer it otherwise and it turns it into more of a staying heat, which might not be ideal for his first run back after a long break.  We&#8217;re hoping to give him a racecourse gallop at Newmarket tomorrow morning and that will be it.  Fingers firmly crossed.</p>
<p>We are making various entries for <strong>Pansy Potter</strong>, and she&#8217;ll be out pretty soon.  Tom Dascombe has entered <strong>Marine Boy</strong> for the Gimcrack, which reflects the high opinion we have of him at home.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve had a look today and I doubt I&#8217;ll be placing any big bets.  In the 2:00 I quite like Temple of Thebes, who fits the profile of the sort of horse I&#8217;d back from Ed Dunlop&#8217;s stable.  She should go on this softening ground and she&#8217;s bred for a longer trip, so she should get home ok.  In the 3:45 I&#8217;m hearing that Whispering Angel is respected at home, although he might need the run.  Brian seems in very good form now though, so this might be worth looking at each way.  There are some very well bred, highly expensive maidens in the 4:20, not least Meydan City, who cost $11.7 million at auction.  I like opposing expensive purchases as they invariably come with more hype than they deserve - it&#8217;s Woodcutter each way for me, who looks a proper stayer at the trip and is bred to go on soft ground.</p>
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		<title>The big day</title>
		<link>http://www.bertsblog.co.uk/horses/the-big-day.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.bertsblog.co.uk/horses/the-big-day.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Jul 2008 17:02:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Bert</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Berts Horses]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Bouguereau]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bertsblog.co.uk/horses/the-big-day.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I had an amazing day on Sunday when I went to the tennis.  I&#8217;d managed to convince myself that Nadal was a sure fire winner and I had a big bet on him.  As I sat down on Centre Court I was rather wishing I hadn&#8217;t had a bet at all, as it was such a big [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I had an amazing day on Sunday when I went to the tennis.  I&#8217;d managed to convince myself that Nadal was a sure fire winner and I had a big bet on him.  As I sat down on Centre Court I was rather wishing I hadn&#8217;t had a bet at all, as it was such a big match and I didn&#8217;t want to have a bias.</p>
<p>Nadal won the first two sets, but it didn&#8217;t feel like he was on top - it felt like he&#8217;d managed to pull off a couple of important points but Federer was playing the better tennis, and the stats backed this up.  In the first set Federer won 72% of his service points to Nadal&#8217;s 64%, in the second it was 60% to 59%.  I decided I&#8217;d trade out of my position on my Blackberry but the price wasn&#8217;t very generous - 1.32.  I should have done it anyway, but as it was I decided to trade out half the position and run the rest.</p>
<p>As we know Fed stormed back to two all but lost the final set.  The winning service percentages;  Set 3 - Fed 79%, Nad 67%.  Set 4 - Fed 67%, Nad 72%.  Set 5 - Fed 61%, Nad 69%.  On the basis of this analysis Federer was on top for the first three sets but Nadal dominated the last two - of course there is enormous significance in how well they played the big points.</p>
<p>A lot has been written about the match.  From my perspective I&#8217;d say it is almost certainly the finest tennis match I have ever seen and quite possibly the best sporting encounter of any kind that I have seen.</p>
<p>The Tattersalls July sale has begun, and today is mares.  Tom Goff has been down there and we&#8217;ve been working them through - Tom at the course and me at home on the computer.  I have one mare in foal already - Baldovina - and I&#8217;m looking for a companion for her.  We narrowed it down to two;</p>
<p>Lot 95, Park Acclaim, was unraced.  She had been in training with Jeremy Noseda but had had an accident and had to have a large chip removed from her knee.  The vet had advised to retire her at that point.  We were told that she had been working well - her dam, Molomo, came second in two group 2s and there was a decent half brother.  She was a good looking grey in foal to Motivator (unsexed).</p>
<p>Lot 245, Boast, was a consistent runner when trained by Fulke Johnson Houghton, winning three and recording 8 RPRs between 94 and 100.  She&#8217;s had three foals, all trained by Roger Charlton, the last two both listed winners and group 3 placed.  She looked a good consistent producer, in foal to Dylan Thomas with a colt.</p>
<p>Tom thought Park Acclaim was worth around £45k and Boast around £80k.  I was particularly keen on Boast.  I couldn&#8217;t find much to value Park Acclaim on, but Tom had liked her as a physical specimen.  We decided to go for Boast and only bid on Park Acclaim if she went for peanuts.</p>
<p>Park Acclaim went first, and as it happened we picked her up for £22k.  Tom only bid once and that was it.  A Motivator cover costs £15k, so this was dirt cheap - I think the market is like this at the moment.  Some lots are making decent money, other lots are making next to nothing.</p>
<p>Boast came up and I had Tom on the end of the phone.  I was dead keen - she ticked all the boxes for me.  The bidding started at £20k but started picking up momentum.  I came in at £105k and again at £130k, but it moved on - eventually she sold for £180k, which was close to the top price of the day.  Ho hum.</p>
<p>The Newmarket July meet starts tomorrow - I&#8217;ll have a couple of runners on Thursday.  <strong>Bouguereau</strong> will appreciate the recent rain and will take all the beating in the Bahrain stakes.  <strong>Maxwell Hawke</strong>, an unraced 2yo, goes in the maiden - he&#8217;ll also go well and could win, although I&#8217;m not so sure he&#8217;ll appreciate the easing in the ground.  He&#8217;s targeting the £1 million sales race in October.</p>
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		<title>Swiss rollover</title>
		<link>http://www.bertsblog.co.uk/horse-racing/swiss-rollover.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.bertsblog.co.uk/horse-racing/swiss-rollover.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 05 Jul 2008 08:29:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Bert</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Horse Racing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bertsblog.co.uk/horse-racing/swiss-rollover.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Jane and I went to the tennis yesterday.  Semi-finals day is often the best day to go, but yesterday was just the administration of a couple of sound beatings and the prelude to what might be a classic final.
I grew up in Wimbledon and I&#8217;ve been to the tennis virtually every year since I was [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jane and I went to the tennis yesterday.  Semi-finals day is often the best day to go, but yesterday was just the administration of a couple of sound beatings and the prelude to what might be a classic final.</p>
<p>I grew up in Wimbledon and I&#8217;ve been to the tennis virtually every year since I was a small boy.  I&#8217;ve seen many great champions, but it&#8217;s not often you get two great champions playing at their peak at the same time.  Becker and Edberg scrapped it out in the late 80s, Sampras and Agassi had amazing hard court duels but Sampras was the man on grass.  For me though it is Borg and McEnroe that I look back to.</p>
<p>Borg was the ice man - cool and unflappable on court, incredibly fit and the consummate professional.  He won from 1976 to 1979, getting better each year.  McEnroe was the fiery genius - awesome power and control and a true sight to behold.  McEnroe was knocking at the door, but in 1980 Borg wasn&#8217;t going to let him in.  It was one of the great finals, Borg winning in an epic 5 sets for his 5th consecutive final.</p>
<p>A year later the younger McEnroe would not be denied, and he won in 4.  It was a natural succession - Borg had peaked and was probably a little on the slide whereas McEnroe was still improving.  They&#8217;d been incredibly close the year before and everything suggested McEnroe would be the better man this time, but somehow Borg felt immortal at Wimbledon and a lot of people thought he&#8217;d do it again.</p>
<p>I see a lot of similarities between that era and the current one.  Federer, the consummate pro, has looked immortal at Wimbledon, but last year Nadal took him right to the edge.  Nadal is clearly improving and Federer is not - he should win this year.  Is there any more to it than this?  I don&#8217;t think there is - don&#8217;t let the wood get in the way of the trees here.  As in Borg&#8217;s era there will be plenty who believe in Federer&#8217;s immortality, which is why he is still favourite.</p>
<p>In the women&#8217;s I think psychology is a bigger factor than form.  I think the sisters have a subconscious sense of &#8220;whose turn it is&#8221; and my sense is that it is Serena&#8217;s turn - Venus has won plenty at Wimbledon.</p>
<p>On to the racing;</p>
<p>The big news today may be the rain at Haydock - it&#8217;s expected to be fairly heavy this morning and I suspect the going will change.  I live only a short distance from Sandown and there has been a little rain this morning, but I doubt we&#8217;ll get much.</p>
<p>The Eclipse looks unusually weak this year.  In the absence of anything better I&#8217;ll go for Stotsfold for a place - I&#8217;m hearing that the Swinburn stable are looking for a big run from him.  Later in the day I like St Jean Cap Ferrat who was entered in the Derby and has ability - he may be delivering closer to his true potential now and can go on and score again.</p>
<p>In the Old Newton&#8217;s at Haydock I&#8217;ll side with Greek Envoy, who&#8217;ll like the rain and goes well on a galloping track.  Later in the sprint handicap I&#8217;ll have a very small interest in Jonny Ebeneezer.</p>
<p>Nap of the day though is Allied Powers in the first at Haydock.  Everything is right here - he&#8217;s getting his beloved rain, the form of his last three victories has worked out, his stable continues in great form and he&#8217;s had a nice break.</p>
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