Keep on believing
May 13th, 2009 by Bert
I had a big day planned yesterday with four runners at Warwick. I’d done my homework on the racing the night before and booked up a car for the day - I also had my blog post written but I held back as I wasn’t sure if Maxwell Hawke was going to run.
Warwick were calling it good to firm - good in places, but were watering overnight to maintain. We spoke to them late morning and they said it was g/f, firm in places - we had a man on the course who said that it was “like a road”. In the space of half an hour all three of the Comic Strip runners were withdrawn. I decided not to travel up.
The one runner left was Quaker Parrot going in the first. I rang Tom - he said he wasn’t worried by the firm ground, in fact he thought she’d go well on it. I spent a while looking at the race and decided she was worth following - Richard rode a great race and she nicked it.
Great news for the partnership and the Timeform Betfair Raceclub, who’s colours she runs in. I called the guys up - they were really pleased but there had been a little negativity as their bulletin hadn’t suggested that she would win. All I can say to any TF/BF raceclub members who read this blog is that Tom is totally upfront and gives his opinions honestly, but also he tries to win every race he runs a horse in. He gave me no great encouragement to back Quaker Parrot but I decided to back her anyway as she was a long price and with Tom’s horses I know I’ll get a run for my money.
Later I travelled into town to the entrepreneur of the year assessment day. Ed and I won a prize in this 7 years ago and haven’t been back since - this year, with so many businesses having a tough time, they suggested we had another go. I was up for it - we’ll find out how we got on later in the summer. I popped in on a charity do after that and got home late. Today was my birthday - a quiet day planned.
The big stories for me come at the end of the week, with Marine Boy, Maxwell Hawke and Winker all running. They are all important runners, but Winker is the main one running in the group 1 Lockinge at Newbury on Saturday.
Most people will have given up on Winker by now. I’m not one of them - call me an optimist but I think he retains all of his talent and will deliver one day. Saturday might be the day.
With the benefit of hindsight I don’t believe Winker was ever right last season. He had a knee problem at the end of his 2yo year and had a lot of box rest - he had another problem immediately after that, which was as a result of the long box rest more than anything else. I don’t think he ever came right - it takes time to recover from these problems and he may not have had enough of it. This year he’s moving really well, but he may be carrying a few war wounds now - he didn’t enjoy his first run and ran a real stinker. A straight mile is perfect for him - he wouldn’t want it too firm. The conditions at Newbury may come up perfect for him.
10 Responses to “Keep on believing”
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I admire your faith in Winker’s abilities, Bert, and presume that he must have been showing plenty at home to warrant such support, but are you (or indeed Mr Chapple-Hyam) at all concerned that his best is now behind him? For all that he disappointed last year, he didn’t run at all badly behind Henrythenavigator in the Sussex Stakes. Could truly fast ground have left too much of a mark on him?
He’s a horse I think of findly, not least because I managed to double him up with Eddie Jock (50/1) at Ascot two years ago, and hope that he finds some sort of form soon. That said, he looks to have it all to do on Saturday with Paco Boy, Dream Eater and the returning Aqlaam in opposition. I think Dream Eater may be capable of reversing Sandown form with Paco Boy, in spite of the latter not carrying a penalty, but the Haggas horse really impressed in beating Il Warrd last season and could be top class.
Will the riding (of Winker) be left to Alan, or do you have something of a game plan for the race?
I am TBR member and also fairly easy going but was not pleased to say the least when I heard the result. The horse came in from 16/1 to 9/1 SP and from 25/1 to 12/1 on exchanges that was as you indicated after negative comment on website. Do not want to labour the point but not a good start for the club.
Best of luck for the weekend.
Just to reiterate what James said, - very worrying the way the price crashed just before the off having had more negative vibes than positives from the club. It could have been worse - at least the pink button not pressed, but given the quality info you do recieve on other horses this was a concerning episode.
Equipedia,
Winker is going well - I’d like to think his best days are still to come, but then I’m an optimist. Alan will ride as he sees fit - he knows the horse well. Well done with Eddie Jock.
James, Scott,
it’s a shame you are negative - finding winners as an owner is not easy. QP’s price didn’t really shorten at all - it opened at around 12 and closed there, it just took a walk in the middle. I backed her late and in fair size - not a big bet by my standards, but my small bets can be quite big in weak races. There was nothing to take - the price tumbled on very low volume. I was almost certainly the biggest backer but I had no particular encouragement from anyone - I’d decided to draw a line through the first run and I thought she had a squawk.
As a general note - I never back horses I own in partnership early - I leave it until late on to let others in first. It’s the same rule as I would apply if backing a friend’s horse - leave it until the last minute and walk away if the price isn’t right.
I apologise if I sounded overly pessimistic, Bert, I was just wondering what the thoughts were of those connected to the horse (and I wasn’t seeking praise in mentioning Eddie Jock, merely highlighting why I’ve always held some hope that Winker would regain his very best form).
I have no affiliation with the Timeform Betfair Racing Club (the Elite Racing Club has, in no uncertain terms, put me off schemes with potentially sizeable membership bases) but Sportinglife.com clearly shows Quaker Parrot reaching 18/1. She opened at 14/1 (though I have no idea of how she fared throughout the EP period) and, despite significant support for both Angel of Fashion and Deal, still returned at 9/1. I appreciate that maidens at Warwick, especially on a Tuesday afternoon, are unlikely to attract large sums of money, but the reportedly negative notes from the trainer don’t seem to reflect the latter stages of the pre-race market.
All of that said, I suppose it’s hard to be wholly confident in races of this nature. And there’s no telling how much of an effect ‘blind faith’ has on a horse’s odds - members of the aforementioned Elite Racing Club seem to back their horses blindly and it’s never a surprise (or at least it wasn’t 4 or 5 years ago) to see a horse shorten dramatically before running abismally.
With QP I was talking about the Betfair price - it was fairly short early but drifted quietly throughout the morning and early afternoon. I was very surprised at the price, but it was just a quiet drift - there was no real opposition. She wasn’t easy to back - not many backers but no layers either.
I think following owners is an interesting and almost certainly highly profitable line. Select foreign interests should be followed, as they rarely back their horses - some studs are similar (I also used to look at rich old ladies…). Certain syndicates should routinely be opposed.
Equitrack - I know you were drawing conclusions on the basis of what somebody else posted but, to put the record straight, I’ve copied below what club members were told and it is certainly not fair to say that the trainer gave ‘negative notes’. Also, the update from the club on the day said that 12/1 reflected her chance, so the fact that she was backed at 27 down to that price on Betfair is hardly eyebrow raising. In the event it was a pleasant surprise that she won. Tom thought he would have a winner that afternoon but expected it to be Yellow Printer who subsequently ran third. However, he at no point said Quaker Parrot would run anything but well.
Updated Wednesday May 6th
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Encouragingly, the first and third in the Class 4 Maiden at Kempton on Monday finished 7th and 13th respectively in Quaker Parrot’s Bath race. Our filly cantered for the first time since that run earlier this week and was set to work seriously this morning. All being well, we will then be looking for an opportunity for her next week.
Updated Wednesday May 6th
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All seems fine with Quaker Parrot and, as such, she has been given an entry at Warwick next Tuesday (12th) in a fillies-only maiden (2.20pm).
Tom will obviously monitor her and consider other race options. We’ll let you know when a final running plan is decided.
Updated Monday May 11th
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Quaker Parrot has been declared for the 2.20 at Warwick tomorrow (Tuesday 12th). Unfortunately she’s drawn 9 of 9 but Tom thinks she’ll run well though there are a few in the race that have already put up promising efforts.
Updated Tuesday May 12th
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Quaker Parrot trades at a general 12/1 for today’s race, summing up the task she faces against a trio in Deal, Angel of Fashion and Forget who all showed more immediate promise on their most recent outings.
It’s fair to say the way the Bath race has worked out offers some encouragement, so we just hope Quaker Parrot can take a step in the right direction this afternoon.
I was, of course, commenting on the basis that both James and Scott were accurate in their assessment of the club’s pre-race comments, but it’s not difficult to see why they drew the conclusion they did.
The four statements are very much ‘read between the lines’ passages and favour any eventuality - small positives indicate that Quaker Parrot had some sort of chance, yet reference to the ‘more immediate promise’ of three other horses could have masked an ultimately disappointing run.
But perhaps that is the nature of racehorse ownership - it is, after all, hard to be pragmatic about midweek maidens at Warwick - but with no experience of that side of the industry I suppose I’m not qualified to comment.
Still, here’s hoping she progresses further and runs well for the team next time.
Equi - it is precisely the case that you could take a positive or negative view of the information available. Anyone who reads this blog regularly will know that Bert is relentlessly optimistic. Most would be more prone to pessimism but the key points are 1) that the people reaching different conclusions were working from the same information and 2) the only comment attributed to the trainer was that he thought she would run well, so it is unfair to suggest he was negative.
Bert / Mick
Thanks for the explanations, very grateful for timespent explaining. I am a cautious person by nature and until the final post before the race intended to back the horse so it was a stamp the foot moment when heard it had won. I will get over missing the winner but just wanted to point out will not have been a selling point for the club. Also should state it was not a go at Bert as his blogs are unbelievably honest and he shares information which others keep close to their chest.
I have been involved in numerous partnerships of 6 to 20 people and realise information given does not always turn out correct.
With regard you point of following owners it is something I have done for years with reasonable success. think Bert made a similar point a few months ago. Owner breeders I find the most profitable ones to follow.