Bert’s Horseracing Blog

Posted in Horse Racing | 7 Comments

7 Responses to “Out with the old and in with the new”

1. on 02 Jan 2009 at 6:10 pm1Philip H

   Oil will be a safe enough investment imo. BP, Aveva are two solid outfits who should be capable of keeping your hard-earned cash safe enough.

   Phil

2. on 03 Jan 2009 at 8:58 am2The Gambler

   I may have mentrioned before but I do not believe the “gambling” industry is definitely “recession proof”. It may have been in the past, but as you know, we are playing by a different set of rules. What was true in the past may not hold for today and tomorrow.

   Obama takes over on Jan 20, so stock markets may or may not rise. Probably will go up as more details of the “rescue” package.

   Back to the “gambling” front, I am predicting a “paradigm shift” in attitudes to gambling, particularly gambling on the internet. At the moment it is possible to lose an absolute fortune on the internet 24/7/365. I have recent experience of this destroying one friends life, and having a very serious impact on another friends life, not to mention both families and a wide circle of friends. I feel slightly culpable as I introduced him to Betfair. I thought he was a social gambler who liked the odd fiver on the gee-gees. 18 months later I find out he had discovered Betafir Casino where he had been wagering vast sums, which he had alledgedgly stolen form my other friends company. Consequently both parties are now seriously in debt.

   For every winner there is a loser. It has definitely changed my attitude to gambling, and sometimes I can be “ahead of the curve” on these things. I don’t believe the story above is a one-off, and as these stories emerge over the months to come, I predict a change in peoples attitudes, and some sort of goverment legislation.

   Sorry for this extended replay which is not strictly “on topic”, and please feel free to delete this comment if it is “too close to the bone”.

   All the best for 2009.

3. on 03 Jan 2009 at 1:43 pm3Philip H

   I think there is a lot of sense in what Gambler says above. This gambling industry has grown into a monster ever since betting shops became “legal” in the 1960s. Prior to that people who did not have a credit accounts with Hills, Laddies or Corals could only place bets with “runners” in pubs, clubs and factories. I used to settle “clock bag” bets, written on fag packets and bits of scrap paper which the runner collected and placed in these backs with a timer lock on them. The “runners” used to get about 1/6d in the £ for the total amount staked. This was fairly harmless punting. Bets were smallish, usually sixpenny or one shilling stakes. Along came the betting shops and they were a licence to print money for the army of bookies who climbed aboard the bandwagon. However, the shops were strictly licensed and opening times were restricted. Punters were not supposed to “loiter” in the shops! Refreshments were strictly outlawed and the bookie could lose his licence if he broke these rules.

   Then things started to mushroom. The government saw more and more ways of earning revenue from gambling. No doubt many of those in power promoted expansion and relaxing of the laws on gambling. You have virtual casinos within betting shops where the roulette games and other quickfire gambles are on offer. Then Betfair and other exchanges come on the scene … it is almost obscene the way things have exploded.

   The ocean of debt that this country and the USA is now sinking in may be largely caused by gambling. Even the bankers and financial whizz-kids started taking massive punts on everything and anything.

   As Gambler says, the government might well seek ways of curbing this mammoth industry … I certainly hope so.

   Phil H.

4. on 05 Jan 2009 at 9:58 pm4james

   At the time of the last downturn I took a more cautious approach and opted for Investment Trusts. My success rate varied but the only one I lost money on was a Japan trust and since then have steared clear of markets I do not understand. I will be going for Trusts which concentrate on the UK. Prices are depressed and they can only go one way. Believe IT’s offer better returns than Unit Trusts. Also have seen some very low new property prices at home and overseas although to make this pay would have to buy numerous and spread load. I have been talking to friends about this ideaand have a few interested.

   I can understand Philip’s point but do not agree. Think you can change someone’s habits but not central core values and the majority of individuals are in the get rich quick culture which was encouraged in the 70’s. There has always been an urge to gamble before betting was legalised, card and tossing schools were common place, money was gambled on brawling, cock and dog fighting in backstreets. perhaps vast sums were not bet but the average individual did not have much and I would guess it represented as much if not more than the average sum wagered by individuals now. Poverty meant having to miss meals and inadequate clothing, few owned own home. If you legislate against one area the problem will just move on and in the days of having no fixed financial boundaries you would need widespread agreement across the world.

5. on 06 Jan 2009 at 1:00 am5Bert

   This is a big topic to respond to in detail, and I obviously have my vested interests, so keeping it brief;

   TG - you have a recent bad experience of a friend with a gambling problem, but this is not a new problem or necessarily a growing one in the UK. It is a very important issue, but regulation already exists and I’d be surprised if much were to change in the short term. A sea change could come from an economic collapse but more likely would have to come from a party political change - we may get a new PM in 2009 but I don’t see a huge shift in political thinking in the offing. Europe is tougher to fathom.

   In general terms - is 2009, a horrible economic year following a banking collapse, a year where political policy is likely to become more or less interventionist? People lost fortunes in 2008 just for having their money in the wrong place - the regulator failed us all. I think the “nanny state” probably gets weaker in 2009 - prohibition was repealed during the great depression.

   In terms of the betting industry - 2008 was a pretty poor year across the board for quoted gambling companies. Ladbrokes share price is less than 50% of what it was 15 months ago, William Hill closer to 33% over the same period, with similar mark downs everywhere you look. These companies have already been hit.

6. on 06 Jan 2009 at 10:18 am6The Gambler

   Cheers Bert.

   Thanks for replying.

   TG.

7. on 06 Jan 2009 at 11:38 pm7ROGSDOGS

   TG
   Sorry to hear about you and your friends problems, but we have to take responsibility for our actions.
   My father was born in 1911 and in the late 20s or early 30s he helped a pal out at Brighton dogs while he was away on 2 weeks holiday, the first week he made £600 ,(100k plus now), the second week he lost the lot, he never moaned about his luck, just said it was the best 1st week of his life.
   So enjoy it while you can, the good times will always be the ones you remember.
   Cheers
   Roger

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