Little do they know
Apr 28th, 2008 by Bert
The week begins and all my thoughts are with Max One Two Three. I spoke to Mick earlier and he said he dreamt about her last night - I hope he didn’t cry out anything compromising. I read a couple of write ups on the 1,000 this morning, neither of them mentioning Max. ”Little do they know” I thought.
Bouguereau is still on course for the Italian Derby, but it’s no certainty as getting there could be prohibitively expensive. It’s too far to go down by box, and to fly him on his own would cost a staggering £40k. Hopefully there will be others making the trip and we can share costs.
More immediately I have a couple of runners coming up. Effingham runs tonight in the last at Windsor. He doesn’t show much at home and he’s probably rather an average animal - he could be one of those that does it on the course but not on the gallops, but I won’t be backing him. Skid Solo runs in a conditions race at Ascot on Wednesday, and it’s a chance for him to redeem himself. I’m very happy to give him another chance.
Well, I hope Max runs in the 1000 as I’ve nipped in and had a small e.w. bet at 40-1 - mostly seen at 33s so I might have at least got good value! Looking forward to it running; good luck!
So bert are you backin max seriously or is it just a novelty bet can you realistically see her getting past infalliable or Narotoga? Are you getting heavily involved or just for the craic? many thanks
@ 40/1 even if she doesn’t get past the 2 horses mentioned above then she is still a nice E/W investment.
IMO if she can travel with Infalliable it will be interesting to see whether she can out pace her from the dip, I think she will. I haven’t seen the aforementioned horse come off the bridle as yet when under pressure from another animal. Looking back at her trial I thought she wasn’t actually as impressive as the commentators on Betfair radio made out. I think Narotoga is the horse to beat unless Godolphin pulls a rabbit out of the hat. I wonder what the forecast would pay
Harry - if I flag my intentions to have a large bet then I’m just setting up the trade for any onlookers, which is not in my interests. I’ve backed her already - I doubt I’ll go in again as I have enough of a stake as it is.
I don’t think any of us know how good Max is. She works with horses rated in the 80s - she gives them lumps of weight and works all over them, but it’s not easy to work out how good she is from this. The only time I tried to come up with a number on the basis of gallops work I came up with something north of 110, but it’s all too vague to be trusted.
My main worry is that she won’t get the trip. Her dam and sire both got the mile but she isn’t like either of them - virtually all of the family race prominently and none have her pace. She’s a bit of a freak - very strongly muscled up front which I presume is where her speed comes from.
I think she probably will get the trip. When Infallible swoops wide and fast to tackle Natagora, maybe Max will be swooping, wider and faster, to tackle Infallible. Lets hope so - it’s what it’s all about.
Bert,
Unfortunately for you Skid Solo was the radio 5 live tip this morning. Hope this isn’t a bad sign!
Cheers
Thommo
Hi Bert,
Good to see things cracking on with you.
Could you drop me a note when you have a second as I don’t have a recent e-mail address for you.
Thanks,
Eamonn
Hope skid solo gets off mark for season. I have stopped punting(slippery slope) as you already know from my previous mail.
Heard on the grapevine that Sun Ship has been working well and they are expecting big improvements from its first run. Hope skid solo can beat that one home
I find that not punting that i am picking winners so my advice to everyone is lump on Soapy Danger coming back to its best and Cesare to win as rain wont help royal oath.
Kay es jay to get off the mark in the 2.45 as well
Ste
Bert the thing is that MOTT is running against Toms other horses and perhaps this makes himn look better than he is. BUT it could also be that if TOM was say AP OBRIEN the horse would be a third of the price.
The only thing that puts me off a JCB stake is the filly cost 16 bags of sand which is a pittance considering she is entered up for the guineas.
As you say she could come wide and late and swopp to glory for Tom and oh what a dream come true that would be eh !!! Think of the millions you would make in future for her offspring eh!!
You better get your smart clobber out just in case you end up in the winners enclosure.
I was reading the comments yesterday and Harry regarding your question would you need to back it if you owned it. I know if i owned it i would just be happy that she is running in a race of this magnitude rather than a rainy afternoon at Faolkestone. Winnin would be the icing on a lovely cake for me. In fact i thin i would not back it so as not to Jinx it so bearing this in mind Bet can i have your betting slip or purchase a share of it with perhaps some other followers of this blog so as to bring you luck….hee he.!!!
Good luck anyway…….its been tipping it down a fair bit the last day or so so you wouldnt want it too heavy Bert would you.
Mark
[quote]Good luck anyway…….its been tipping it down a fair bit the last day or so so you wouldnt want it too heavy Bert would you.
Mark[/quote]
It will be dry and sunny by Sunday … I’ve emailed ‘Im Upstairs, so it’s OK: going = good!
Yes Philip it look like the Big man upstairs has organised a dry weekend and the ground will be spot on for Max. Cant wait and with the luck or sorry skill i hve in selecting winners and bringing luck to the table Philip your little piece of paper maty be worth a lot of dough ray me (dosh) come Sunday eh!!!