The big one
Jun 6th, 2008 by Bert
Only a day away from a runner in the Derby, and although he’s a rank outsider I’m still pretty excited. The rain didn’t come for me, but there’s still a fair bit forecast and it might be enough to turn the ground at the last minute. Fingers crossed for a big run.
Thoughts on the big race then;
I can’t have New Approach - he’s on a mission to try and salvage something from his classic year but he isn’t a Derby horse and he wasn’t intended to contest this race. He doesn’t look like a 12 furlong horse to me - I expect him to run a solid race, maybe even scrape a place, but surely there has to be something better here.
Another I’m passing purely on looks is Tartan Bearer. He’s looks on the small side and he’s got plenty of muscle up front. He looks like a speed horse - he won the Dante (10 1/2 f) on fastish ground. He might be talented but I can’t see him getting home - I’d prefer the second - Frozen Fire.
Curtain Call looks decent but his form is all on soft ground and it’s not exceptional - the best RPR he has is 113, and Bouguereau had a 112 until it was marked down recently. His price is too short. Casual Conquest could be special. He’s big and inexperienced and he could fluff his lines on Epsoms cambers - nevertheless it’s hard to ignore him. Tajaaweed is big and good looking but just a touch too beefy up front for me - I’m wondering if he’s a true 10f horse.
My pick is Doctor Fremantle. I think he’s only recently got the hang of things and his early form can be ignored. He’s clearly a stayer, he’s on the upgrade and he’s not a bad price. Bouguereau for a place.
King’s Head goes in the 4:45. With no rain I’d quite fancy him but I expect it will rain, in which case he’s an unlikely winner.
10 Responses to “The big one”
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Best of luck today Bert…… enjoy the day. I’ll have a small interest on the place for your animal in the big one.
What a great day ahead for you and your family Bert, enjoy it and should the impossible happen all of us who check out your blog and like to know what it’s like to live the dream will be chuffed for you! Casual Conquest my idea of the winner.
Mr Stouts comments on the morning line were encouraging for Dr Freemantle…… however advice to all he was very cautious on Tanjaweed after some problems in this weeks prep. Bloggers beware if fancying tanjaweed today.
Hope it goes well today. Here’s to a place for Bougereau and promotion for STFC over the next 12 months. I’m going to have a dabble on both.
well done with KH bert, got a great trade out of it and backed it @ 10s for a place. as always yr blog is a great read and a profitable one to boot. boogie also ran a great race imo
Bert - Hope you enjoyed your day…. you should have a very credible run in the Derby for Boogie which made a mockery of that price, a promising run indeed. And a nice 4th for kings head - I got 12’s on the betfair SP for a place so I was also delighted!!!!!
Betfair sp of 12’s on KH for a place - well done and thank you!!!! But more importantly I hope you were proud of boogie, a very credible run full of promise that made a mockery of that price!!!! Where next???? Ascot?
Sorry for the double post!!!! Internet did not accept my first post so I repeated it. ooops
How wrong did you get the derby?? new approach always wanted further and i enjoyed lumping on ew at 13/2 and 6 and then backed a minute before the off at 5s as he went to post like a dream! switch on big man!
Bert, do you have any runners at Ascot?????
Bankable in the hunt cup!! do him in a treble with henrythenavigator and Yeatys (easy money)!!!!