A poor tipping performance on Saturday – I’m not quite firing at the moment. Maybe today will be better.
I’ve had a hard look at the 3:35 at Ripon – the sharp early turn on the mile course has played into the hands of low drawn front runners in the past. In the Great St. Wilfrid on similar ground the action occurred on the other (stands) side which could help those drawn higher. Wannabe King won this race two years ago as a 3yo – he was drawn high that day and is again today. He should go on the ground and might be a bit of value at the current long odds.
I’ve had debates about course and distance form before – I’m reliably told it is not worth following as CD horses tend to be overbet (in fact it is good strategy to lay these horses). I think CD is interesting if the course has unusual characteristics – Epsom is such a course. I like Resurge in the 3:40 and Salient in the 5:25 – both CD winners four runs ago and both have shown weakish form between times. Both are from small stables but have solid jockeys booked.
In the 3:50 at Chepstow I like the unraced Good Morning Star. I’m keen to oppose the Hannon trained favourite who hasn’t managed to win in 5 starts and is now swimming against the tide of later maturing types. Good Morning Star was a cheap purchase for Jaber Abdullah despite being fairly well bred – presumably something wasn’t quite right. Her mother won a 17 runner maiden at Newbury on soft ground on her first start and came a close second in a listed race on heavy second time up. Shirocco is a stallion whose progeny do well on softer ground. She looks like the value alternative to me.
In the 5:00 at Chepstow I’m siding with George Thisby, who looks a nice consistent type, should go on the ground and has the assistance of Luke Rowe, who won on the horse the only time he rode him before.