I’ve had blog problems and the site has been down for a while – apologies for any inconvenience.
My betting has been very up and down. I had an amazing run following a few stables coming into form – Stuart Kittow, David O’Meara, Keith Dalgleish etc. Tom’s horses have been running extremely well and continue to do so. This last week or two I’ve given a lot of my profits away – a big bet on Federer to win the French, a big bet on Recital in the Derby (what was I thinking ??) and others.
I’ve had a good look today. I was going to go big on Defence of Duress in the Lady amateur at York – expensive horse that the trainer would not be making light of, trainer/jockey combo have won this before with a 3yo, 12f is a tough trip for an amateur and a number of the jockeys in the race didn’t really stand up to scrutiny. Anyway he is a non-runner so that research was a waste of time.
I’m interested in Baron’s Spy in the 4:00 at Bath. He was taking on far too much last time – he drops back to grade 4 after three runs in grade 3, and this is his level. It isn’t clear cut but he looks like the type that prefers to give weight rather than receive it. Trainer in form, jockey/ground/price all good. Dual C/D winner so no problems there.
Prince Gabrial is interesting at Chester. Dr Koukash often saves his best runners for Chester; there is some evidence that the horses he names after his children are the best he has; He was the second most expensive Moss Vale to go through the ring, and since the family is not special it would have been on looks. I like the strategy of backing the best of the bunch from the cheaper stallions. The slightly unfavourable draw is unlikely to be a problem in a 2yo maiden where they run all over the place.
On the subject of Moss Vale 2yos I have a piece of Cape Moss who runs in the 3:25 at Bath. I think he’s alright and will run very well – the Channon trained fav is out which makes him more interesting as a win bet.