The big one

Only a day away from a runner in the Derby, and although he’s a rank outsider I’m still pretty excited.  The rain didn’t come for me, but there’s still a fair bit forecast and it might be enough to turn the ground at the last minute.  Fingers crossed for a big run.

Thoughts on the big race then;

I can’t have New Approach – he’s on a mission to try and salvage something from his classic year but he isn’t a Derby horse and he wasn’t intended to contest this race.  He doesn’t look like a 12 furlong horse to me – I expect him to run a solid race, maybe even scrape a place, but surely there has to be something better here.

Another I’m passing purely on looks is Tartan Bearer.  He’s looks on the small side and he’s got plenty of muscle up front.  He looks like a speed horse – he won the Dante (10 1/2 f) on fastish ground.  He might be talented but I can’t see him getting home – I’d prefer the second – Frozen Fire.

Curtain Call looks decent but his form is all on soft ground and it’s not exceptional – the best RPR he has is 113, and Bouguereau had a 112 until it was marked down recently.  His price is too short.  Casual Conquest could be special.  He’s big and inexperienced and he could fluff his lines on Epsoms cambers – nevertheless it’s hard to ignore him.  Tajaaweed is big and good looking but just a touch too beefy up front for me – I’m wondering if he’s a true 10f horse.

My pick is Doctor Fremantle.  I think he’s only recently got the hang of things and his early form can be ignored.  He’s clearly a stayer, he’s on the upgrade and he’s not a bad price.  Bouguereau for a place.

King’s Head goes in the 4:45.  With no rain I’d quite fancy him but I expect it will rain, in which case he’s an unlikely winner.